Mazda CX-5 vs Subaru Outback: The $980 Gap Is Repairs

Our calculator puts the 2020 Mazda CX-5 at $27,962 over five years and the 2020 Subaru Outback at $28,942. That is $980 in the Mazda's favor, or $466 a month versus $482.

The Mazda wins, and the reason is narrow. Of that $980, $837 is repairs. Depreciation adds $52 for the Outback and insurance adds $91. Fuel, maintenance and registration come out identical. If you are cross-shopping these two at 60,000 to 90,000 miles, you are really asking one question: how much do you want to bet on repair bills in years four and five?

Where the $980 actually comes from

Start with what does not matter. Fuel is $10,735 for both cars over five years, which works out to $179 a month each. Maintenance is $3,564 for both. Registration is $255 for both. Those three lines make up a big chunk of the total and contribute nothing to the gap.

That leaves three lines that differ.

Depreciation: $3,468 for the CX-5, $3,520 for the Outback. A $52 difference over five years is rounding error. Our assumed purchase prices are $14,500 for the Mazda and $15,100 for the Subaru, both our own estimates for this model year. The Outback costs $600 more up front, but it gives back almost all of that in resale terms, so depreciation does not punish you much for choosing it.

Insurance: $7,445 for the Mazda, $7,536 for the Outback. That is $91 over five years, about $18 a year. These are our estimates based on each car's value and class, not quotes. Your own premium will depend on your age, ZIP code and driving record, and could easily flip this small gap. Do not buy a car over it.

Repairs: $2,495 for the Mazda, $3,332 for the Outback. This is the real story. Roughly 85 percent of the total gap lives on this one line.

So the headline is not that the Mazda is cheaper to fuel or holds its value better. Neither is true in any meaningful way. The Mazda is cheaper because our calculator expects the Outback to break more often, and more expensively, once the miles pile up.

The gap widens every single year

The Outback never catches up. It starts behind and falls further back.

Here are the yearly totals from our calculator, Mazda first:

• Year 1: $5,149 vs $5,243, a gap of $94
• Year 2: $5,365 vs $5,495, a gap of $130
• Year 3: $6,247 vs $6,442, a gap of $195
• Year 4: $5,789 vs $6,039, a gap of $250
• Year 5: $5,412 vs $5,723, a gap of $311

The gap grows every year. By year five, the Outback costs $311 more to own than the Mazda in that single year.

Notice what happens in year three. Both cars spike, to $6,247 and $6,442, because scheduled maintenance jumps to $1,458 for each. That is the big service interval, the one with the pricier fluids, belts, brakes and tires that tend to land around this mileage. It hits both cars equally. Budget for it either way. After that, maintenance drops to $880 in year four and $324 in year five.

What separates the cars is what happens after year three. The Mazda's yearly total falls from $6,247 to $5,789 to $5,412. The Outback's falls from $6,442 to $6,039 to $5,723. Both come down, but the Outback comes down more slowly because its repair line keeps climbing.

Repairs: the Outback's bill climbs faster

This is where the two cars separate, so here are the yearly repair numbers side by side.

Mazda CX-5: $277, $370, $462, $601, $785.

Subaru Outback: $370, $494, $617, $802, $1,049.

Both lines go up, which is normal. Cars get more expensive to fix as they age. But the Outback's line is steeper. In year one, it is $93 higher. By year five, it is $264 higher. The Outback's year-five repair estimate of $1,049 is more than the CX-5's year-five figure by a third.

What does that mean in plain terms? A 2020 car with 60,000 to 90,000 miles is out of its basic warranty in most cases, and you are paying for whatever fails. The Outback is, by our calculator's estimate, the car more likely to hand you an invoice you did not plan for, and the invoices get larger as you go.

For an outside check, RepairPal publishes reliability ratings and average annual repair costs by model, along with how often owners visit a shop for unscheduled problems. Look up both of these cars there and compare the numbers for yourself. Our repair figures are estimates, and RepairPal gives you a second opinion built on a different method. If the two sources point the same direction, trust the direction. If they disagree, trust the one that matches what a pre-purchase inspection finds on the specific car you are looking at.

One caution applies to both vehicles. Averages hide the single bad car. A well-maintained Outback with records can beat a neglected CX-5 easily. A $150 to $200 inspection by an independent mechanic is the cheapest repair insurance you can buy, and it matters more than the model badge.

Fuel is a wash, so stop comparing it

Our calculator shows the same fuel cost for both: $179 a month, $10,735 over five years. The year-by-year figures are identical too, rising from $2,063 in year one to $2,233 in year five.

That is the biggest single cost in either car's budget, bigger than insurance and more than three times what you will spend on repairs. It is also the one line where the choice between these two does not matter.

If you want the official MPG ratings, you can look up the Mazda CX-5 on fueleconomy.gov and the Subaru Outback on fueleconomy.gov. Pick the exact engine and drivetrain for each, because ratings vary within a model year. But do not expect the answer to change the ranking. On our numbers, you will spend the same at the pump either way, so the decision comes down to the other lines.

Why the Outback's higher price is not the problem

The Outback's sticker is $600 higher in our estimate. A reader could assume that is the whole story and that the extra money buys a nicer car. It does not explain the five-year gap at all, because depreciation runs nearly level between the two. The Outback loses $853 in year one against the Mazda's $870, and in later years it loses slightly more: $610 versus $581 in year five. Over the full stretch, the difference is $52.

So the Outback's extra purchase price is not the issue. Its problem is that it costs more to keep running. You pay a bit more to get in, and a good deal more to stay.

The verdict

The 2020 Mazda CX-5 is the cheaper car to own, by $980 over five years. That is not a huge number. It is about $16 a month. But it points in one direction every year, and it grows, so the longer you keep the car, the more it matters.

Pick the CX-5 if you plan to drive the car for five years or more, or until it dies. You are the person the repair curve punishes most. Your savings versus the Outback go from $94 in year one to $311 in year five, and the CX-5's repair estimate of $785 in year five is the easier bill to swallow. It is also the right choice if you keep a tight budget and hate surprise invoices, because on our numbers the Mazda is the safer bet for a quiet repair history. Take the Mazda and put the savings toward that year-three service.

Pick the Outback if you will sell it within two or three years, before its repair costs climb, and you have a real reason to want it over the Mazda. The gap through year three is only $419 on our numbers, and the Outback's wagon body and cargo space are the sort of thing that is worth paying a few hundred dollars for if you haul dogs, bikes or gear. Check each car's equipment first, since all-wheel drive and trim vary by listing. Also pick it if you find a clean example with full service records and a clear inspection report, since that can cancel out the average repair risk.

If neither of those describes you, buy the Mazda. The Outback is not a bad car. It is simply the more expensive one to keep, and nothing in our numbers shows it earning that premium back.